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2018 Inglis Easter Sale in Review - Did the Statistics Match the Hype?

12 Apr 18


The Australian Easter Yearling Sale, concluded yesterday claiming the title as the "Second Best Easter Sale" ever.



In a stunning three days in front of a buying bench gathered from all corners of the globe:

*22 yearlings sold for $1m or more, up from 17 in 2017

*Of these, they came from eight different stallions - Snitzel (7), I Am Invincible (5), Fastnet Rock (4), Deep Impact (2), Redoute’s Choice, Frankel, Pierro and Not A Single Doubt (1) – and 18 different individual buyers

*71 Lots sold for $500,000 or more, up from 64 in 2017

*Arrowfield Stud was again leading vendor ahead of Coolmore Stud while Yarraman Park, Kia Ora Stud, Highgrove Stud, Tyreel Stud and Fairview Park all enjoyed a 100% clearance rate AND eclipsed the sale’s overall average

*The top Lot sold for $2.3 million, a Fastnet Rock x The Broken Shore colt (Lot 400) from Arrowfield’s draft

*Book 1 grossed $116,057,500, behind only the 2008 Easter Yearling Sale.



The Fastnet Rock x Broken Shore colt was not only the top Lot of Day 3 but the overall sale-topper.



Arrowfield’s John Messara, who not only offered the sale-topping colt but was also crowned leading vendor, was thrilled with the three days of sales.

“It’s been a good week,’’ Messara said.



“We bought some really nice horses here to inaugurate the establishment of the new Riverside Stables, we expected to do well and I’m very pleased with the results.

At the sale’s conclusion, the Book 1 average was $347,478 at a clearance rate of 84% and median of $250,000.

The leading vendor was Arrowfield by both aggregate ($18,265,000) and average ($589,194) while Arrowfield’s stallion Snitzel was leading sire by aggregate ($21,685,000).

Coolmore Stud’s Fastnet Rock was leading sire by average ($554,167) in a close decision over I Am Invincible who averaged $553,030 and Snitzel who averaged $528,902.

Shadwell was leading buyer, spending $6,140,000, ahead of the Hong Kong Jockey Club.

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Inglis Managing Director Mark Webster couldn’t have been happier with the Easter results.

“To match last year’s average and increase the gross by more than $7million, it’s a very healthy position to be in,’’
Webster said.

“These results all come down to the fantastic quality of product our vendors have presented to the market, and the diversity of the buying bench that has come to Riverside Stables this week.

“It’s been a fantastic week for Arrowfield as leading vendor, Coolmore who also grossed in excess of $10m and so many studs who enjoyed a 100% clearance rate.

“As for the buying bench, it was fantastic to see the Hong Kong Jockey Club supporting the sale and I wish them luck as they re-offer their colts at the Hong Kong International Sale, and to leading buyer Shadwell, good luck to you and to everyone who bought a yearling at Easter 2018.’’


2018 AUSTRALIAN EASTER YEARLING SALE STATISTICS (2017 stats in brackets)

SESSION 1
Lots Sold: 335 (308)
Clearance Rate: 84% (87%)
Average Price: $347,478 ($354,935)
Median Price: $250,000 ($260,000)
Top Price: $2,300,000 ($2,500,000)
Gross: $116,057,500 ($109,320,000)

SESSION 2
Lots Sold: 51 (51)
Clearance Rate: 76% (77%)
Average Price: $115,490 ($119,216)
Median Price: $100,000 ($90,000)
Top Price: $330,000 ($640,000)
Gross: $5,890,000 ($6,080,000)


An alternative view:


DYNAMIC SYNDICATION chose not to be active at this year’s Easter Yearling Sale based upon a sound business philosophy.

It’s our opinion (and we have the statistics to back it up), that contrary to marketing hype, Easter certainly can’t be a considered a select sale on type – it’s a fashion parade on pedigree and politics.

Year upon year there are horses offered for sale at Easter that just should not be there. Those that are either badly conformed, tiny, have poor x-rays or some other major complications that basically make them of un-merchantable quality to professional buyers.

Statistic prove this and again in 2018, it was no different.

Aware that only 450 lots were originally catalogued in Book 1, 53 of these were scratched which left just 397 for competition.

With 22 yearlings selling for $1 million or more and the average was $347,478 and the Median was $250,000 and with the leading yearling buyers from around the world at the sale, why then would a yearling by Pierro sell for $20,000 on a Sire average of $297,667 and a Snitzel for $40,000 on a Sire average of $528,902 ? Common sense tells you why.

Statistics showed that from 397 available lots for competition, the clearance rate was 84% - that means 62 were Passed-In because they failed to attract enough interest from buyers (or vendors’ greed – or both).

So the sale was down to 335 which actually sold and created the Average and Median.

Of these 335 - a massive 53 (15.8%) sold for $100,000 or less which is ridiculous based upon the hype and marketing of the sale being the Best of the Best.

So what were these apparently inferior horses doing in the catalogue in the first instance?

That left only 282 lots that were able to sell for more than $100,000.

Half the Median Price (a key performance indicator) was $125,000. A further 11 yearlings sold in this range taking the total to 64 yearlings (19.1%) sold for $125,000 or less.

A further 16 sold for $140,000 or less. This shows that 80 yearlings (23.9%) of those sold yearlings went for $140,000 or less, against an average of $347,478.

Half the average price (a key performance indicator) was $173,739. Another 35 sold between $140,000 and $175,000.

That’s a staggering 115 yearlings from the 335 sold (34.3%) went for $175,000 or less, not to forget the unwanted 62 yearlings that Passed-In.

Such a long tail gives professional buyers and market observers a better understanding of what Easter really is about – it’s a Fashion Parade.

You have those horses that truly are the Best of The Best - hence why 22 sold for $1million or more – and those horses bred to be the best of the best but Mother Nature didn’t allow that to happen and they have conformational defects that professional buyers don’t want. 

Buyers go to Easter to buy the best of the best – however syndicators truly can’t compete with those who have oil rigs in their backyard. As can be seen in the above statistics, almost 25% of the sales based specifically on price, proves that they were considered bottom end products, horses that you wouldn’t buy at other sales so why would you buy them at Easter?

That’s why Dynamic Syndications chose not to be active at Easter in 2018 but rather shop harder at the earlier sales throughout the year.

Dynamic Syndications go to the sales to only purchase the best we can, based upon conformation, pedigree and price. We never go to any sale to trawl through the bottom quarter of the horses catalogued, we leave that to others. It’s a statistical fact that on price structure and ceiling price limitations for syndicators, every syndicator’s limitations at Easter is the bottom third of the sale.

Dynamic Syndications are proud of the 21 Yearlings we purchased in 2018 and we picked what we considered were the Best of the Best at the Magic Millions, NZ Premier, Inglis Classic and Inglis Melbourne Premier.




Adam Watt & Tim Roberts expecting a yearling at Inglis Riverside

We purchased yearlings each of which were passed by our veterinarian Dr. Tim Roberts after extensive veterinary examinations which included a full set of X-rays, Endoscope Evaluation and Blood Testing for steroids. Each had an elite pedigree rating score representing three (3) independent variants and were purchased at or below a pre-determined ceiling price based upon accurate market valuation appraisal.


In 2018 Dynamic Syndications purchased top quality yearling by:

REDOUTE’S CHOICE
SAVABEEL (3)
EXCEED AND EXCEL (2)
PIERRO
MORE THAN READY
MEDAGLIA D’ORO
SMART MISSILE (2)
EPAULETTE
EXCELEBRATION

& FIRST SEASON SIRES:

BRAZEN BEAU
DEEP FIELD
OLYMPIC GLORY
RUBICK (2)
VERRAZANO
WANDJINA (2)





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